基于Monte Carlo的海洋平台圆柱落物落点分析及危险区快速评价*

为实现海洋平台落物风险快速精确评价，针对传统推荐性规范经验化、过于简化、平面化及未体现工程随机性等问题，以圆柱落物为研究对象开展先导研究，基于3D运动理论模型，提出1种采用Monte Carlo方法表征工程随机性以实现危险区快速精确评价的方法，自主开发形成海洋平台圆柱落物危险区快速评价工具（MREDP），着重分析落点分布规律和危险区等级划分。结果表明:落点分布整体呈现“倒工字圆弧型”、两端“一密一疏”、关于X轴对称特点；MREDP快速评价结果可信，评价周期大幅降低；MREDP快速评价危险区相对较大、存在多峰值点，DNVGL-RP-F107推荐危险区相对保守、存在单峰值点。

Analysis on landing points of cylindrical dropped objects and fast evaluation of risk zone on offshore platform based on Monte Carlo method

In order to achieve the rapid and accurate evaluation of drop objects risk on the offshore platform,aiming at the problems of empiricalization,over-simplification,planarization,and failure to reflect the randomness of engineering in the traditional recommended specifications,the pilot research with the cylindrical dropped objects as research object was carried out.Based on the three-dimensional (3D) motion theoretical model,a method of using Monte Carlo method to characterize the engineering randomness to achieve the rapid and accurate evaluation of risk zone was proposed,and a rapid evaluation tool for the risk zone of cylindrical dropped objects on the offshore platform (MREDP) was independently developed,then the distribution of landing points and the classification of risk zone were studied with emphasis.The results showed that the distribution of landing points presented the characteristics of “inverted I-shaped arc type”,“one dense and one sparse” at both ends,and X axial symmetry as a whole.The rapid evaluation results of MREDP were believable,and the evaluation cycle was greatly reduced.The risk zone obtained by the rapid evaluation of MREDP was relatively large,and there were multiple peak points,while the recommended risk zone of DNVGL-RP-F107 was relatively conservative,and there was a single peak point.