基于零膨胀模型的航空器危险接近事件安全影响因素研究*

为探究航空器危险接近事件安全影响因素，降低航空器碰撞风险,利用二元概率函数区分航空器危险接近事件危险状态,利用probit函数确定不同风险等级结果，构建航空器危险接近事件零膨胀有序概率模型。结果表明:机组人员程序执行偏差、侵犯领空（无人驾驶飞机未获许可在管制空域飞行）、意图沟通无效或不充分、未监控其他飞机或监控不及时4个安全影响因素，增加航空器危险接近时碰撞风险概率分别为7.03%、4.25%、7.14%和6.03%。

Research on safety influencing factors of aircraft near-midair collision events based on zero inflated model

In order to explore the safety influencing factors of aircraft near-midair collision events and avoid the risk of aircraft collision,the binary probability function was used to distinguish the risk status of aircraft near-midair collision events,then the probit function was used to determine the results of different risk levels,and a zero-inflated ordered probit model for the aircraft near-midair collision events was constructed.The results showed that there were four safety influencing factors including the program execution deviation of crew,violation of airspace (unmanned aircraft flying in controlled airspace without permission),ineffective or inadequate communication of intent,and failing in monitoring other aircrafts or failing in monitoring them timely,and their probability of increasing the collision risk in case of aircraft near-midair collision was 7.03%,4.25%,7.14% and 6.03%,respectively.