基于AHP-熵权法的城市燃气管道风险评价*

为全面、客观地评价城市燃气管道风险，提出1种基于AHP-熵权法的城市燃气管道风险评价模型。该模型基于风险评价理论，结合管道失效可能性与后果严重性，构建包含105个评价底因素的城市燃气管道风险评价指标体系。针对城市燃气管道风险因素的复杂性和模糊性，引入模糊数学思想和方法，结合AHP和熵权法确定评价指标的综合权重，再运用模糊综合评价法和风险分析矩阵评估燃气管道风险等级。结果表明:该评价模型风险评价结果与实际情况相符，可为城市燃气管道风险预警与管理提供依据。

Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline based on AHP and entropy weight method

In order to assess the risk of urban gas pipeline comprehensively and objectively,a risk assessment model of urban gas pipeline based on the AHP and entropy weight method was proposed.Based on the theory of risk assessment,combined with the possibility of pipeline failure and the severity of consequence,a risk assessment index system of urban gas pipeline was constructed,which contained 105 basic factors.In view of the complexity and fuzziness of the risk factors of urban gas pipeline,the idea and method of fuzzy mathematics were introduced to determine the comprehensive weight of the evaluation indexes combined with the AHP and entropy weight method,and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and risk analysis matrix were used to assess the risk level of gas pipeline.The results showed that the risk assessment results of the assessment model were consistent with the actual situation,and it can provide the basis for risk early-warning and management of urban gas pipelines.