气候变化情景下湿地净初级生产力风险评价

采用BIOME-BGC模型,模拟了气候变化情景下(A1B, A2, B2)三江平原富锦地区小叶章(Calamagrostis angustifolia)湿地的净初级生产力(NPP)变化,并通过NPP变化情况评价小叶章湿地风险等级.结果表明:未来30年(2013~2042年)各气候情景下富锦小叶章湿地NPP均值均高于基准期均值(1961~1990), A1B和B2情景下未来30年间NPP波动范围变大,A2情景下NPP有降低趋势.风险评价结果表明,气候变化情景下小叶章湿地存在一定风险,尤其是在A1B情景下,未来30年中可能有6年以上的年份存在高风险,A2情景下湿地风险最低.湿地NPP变化与降水量呈显著正相关(R2=0.58,P<0.05),说明降水量是影响区域湿地的重要因素.尽管气候变化情景下假设了存在升温?CO2浓度升高等有利于植物生长的因素,但降水量的的剧烈变化以及极端气候事件的增加,可能会导致湿地在未来气候变化情景下面临较高风险,未来湿地保护与管理过程中应重点关注水的补给和调配.

Risk assessment of net primary productivity for wetland under climate change scenario: a case study of the Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland at Fujin in Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

Using the BIOME-BGC model, we estimated the changes of net primary productivity (NPP) of Calamagrostis angustifolia wetland at Fujin City in the Sanjiang Plain under IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B2), and assessed the wetland risk level based on the change ratios. Our results showed the optimal method significantly improved the simulation of wetland vegetation. From 2013 to 2042, wetland NPP was higher than that in 1961~1990. The NPP fluctuated strongly under A1B and B2 scenarios, while it showed a decreasing trend under A2 scenario. Risk assessment result indicates the risk of wetland under climatic change scenarios. In the A1B scenario, the number of high risk year might more than 6 in the next 30 years, and the risk of wetland might be lowest in A2scenario. In addition, precipitation was determined to be the dominant factor that affected NPP with significantly positive relationship (R2=0.58, P<0.05). Although the increases in temperature and CO2 concentration in the future climate are beneficial to plant growth, the wetland will face risk with the increases in extreme weather events and the intense climate change, especially for the greater fluctuation of precipitation. The protection and management of wetland should focus on water supply and deployment in the future.