Risks, risk taking, and societal decisions

Risk assessment is an important tool to help evaluate the appropriate course for social decisions. But this methodology does not appear to have played a significant role in such decisions. Moreover, public decisions often appear to be at wide variance with what course risk assessment would counsel. In this paper risk is defined, the nature of risk taking is examined, and risk assessment issues in terms of societal decisions are identified. Eight such issues are listed as technical challenges for risk assessors to take into consideration if their analyses are to be more successful in influencing public policy. Finally, the paper suggests two operative guidelines to improve the effectiveness of risk assessment influence on social decisions. One is to recognize that risk assessment is only one input, albeit an important one, to such decisions. The other is to strive for simplicity without loss of completeness or exactness.