| 实现环境保护战略目标的风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 毕军,郝家明.实现环境保护战略目标的风险评价[J].环境保护科学,1993,19(4):68-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毕军 郝家明 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学环境科学研究所，沈阳环境科学研究所，沈阳环境科学研究所，沈阳环境科学研究所，沈阳环境科学研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文剖析了实现环境保护战略目标的保障体系,通过故障模式影响分析建立了实现环保战略目标的故障树,并利用最小割集法获得故障树的结构函数及顶端事件发生的概率.结果表明,实现环保战略目标的风险为0.311.根据相对重要性大小对各最小割集进行排序,认为环保资金不到位是最显著的风险要素,其中环保投资比例偏低及环保资金管理不善是两个最主要故障.
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评价 故障树分析 最小割集法 环境保护战略目标 |
RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION STRAEGIC OBJECTIVE |
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| Bi Jun.RISK ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION STRAEGIC OBJECTIVE[J].Environmental Protection Science,1993,19(4):68-73. |
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| Authors: | Bi Jun |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the guarantee system of the realization of environmental protec- tion strategic objective.Based on the analysis of its failure mode and effect,a fault tree is built up and the minimal cut set method is used to establish the structure function and calculate the probablity of the top event.The result shows that the risk associated with the strategic pbjective is 0.311,and the lack of environmental protection finance is the most dominant factor,especially for the low investment pro- portion and its bad management. |
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| Keywords: | Risk Assessment Fault Tree Analysis Minimal Cut Set Environmental Protection Objective |
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