| 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市草原火灾危害度评价及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张继权,范久波,刘兴朋,杨海焕,佟志军. 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市草原火灾危害度评价及预测[J]. 灾害学, 2010, 25(1): 35-38 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张继权 范久波 刘兴朋 杨海焕 佟志军 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北师范大学,城市与环境科学学院,东北师范大学,自然灾害研究所,吉林,长春,130024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，十一五国家科技支撑重大项目，十一五国家科技支撑计划课题，十一五国家科技支撑计划重点项目，公益性行业(农业)科研专项，东北师范大学自然科学青年基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 以呼伦贝尔市1994-2005年的草原火灾为研究对象,基于灰色关联度法、系统聚类分析法,引用草原火灾危害度指数(HI),对每年草原火灾危害度进行评价,并借助灰色灾变预测法对危害度大的年份进行预测,预测到未来2个危害度大的年份是2014、2026年。
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| 关 键 词： | 草原火灾 灰色关联度 系统聚类分析 危害度 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市 |
Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Hulunbeir |
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| Zhang Jiquan,Fan Jiubo,Liu Xingpeng,Yang Haihuan,Tong Zhijun. Assessment and Prediction of Grassland Fire Disaster in Hulunbeir[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010, 25(1): 35-38 |
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| Authors: | Zhang Jiquan Fan Jiubo Liu Xingpeng Yang Haihuan Tong Zhijun |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Jiquan,Fan Jiubo,Liu Xingpeng,Yang Haihuan , Tong Zhijun(College of Urban , Environmental Sciences,Natural Disaster Research Institute,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the gray correlation method and systematic clustering analysis,taking the grassland fire disasters in Hulunbeir from 1994 to 2005 as study object,the grassland fire hazard degrees each year are evaluated by use of grassland fire hazard degree index(HI).Gray prediction method is used to predict the year of greater hazards.It is expected that this study can provide the governments with a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | grassland fire disaster gray relational grade systematic clustering analysis hazard degree Hulunbeir of Inner Mongolia |
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