洪涝灾害后城镇景观长距离输水系统水文风险评估

对输水系统运作过程存在风险采取准确评估,可有效维护洪涝灾害后城镇景观设施完整性.该文提出一种基于MS-AR模型的长距离输水系统水文风险评估方法,首先分析输水节点结构重要性与网络结构抗毁性的耦联关系,推算平均节点结构重要度,明确节点对系统损坏贡献水平,利用节点结构重要度离散性质表示输水系统网络结构抗毁性,获取长距离输水系...

Hydrological Risk Assessment of Urban Landscape Long Distance Water Delivery System after Flood Disaster

It can effectively maintain the integrity of urban landscape facilities after flood disaster by accurately assessing the risk in the operation process of long-distance water delivery system. we present a hydrological risk assessment method based on ms-ar model. Firstly, the coupling relationship between the structural importance of water delivery nodes and the invulnerability of network structure is analyzed, the average structural importance of nodes is calculated, the contribution level of nodes to the system damage is determined, and the invulnerability of network structure of water delivery system is expressed by using the discrete property of node structural importance, and the structural reliability coefficient of long-distance water delivery system is obtained;secondly, the structure of long-distance water delivery system is constructed by using Ditlevsen boundary Finally, ms-ar model is used to iterate the parameters to achieve the maximum likelihood estimation, and obtain the quality simulation sequence of long-distance water delivery system to complete the risk assessment process. The simulation results show that this method can get accurate hydrological risk assessment results of long-distance water delivery system, and provide effective help for urban landscape flood restoration.