“一带一路”沿线国家台风灾害关联经济损失研究--以2018年“山竹”台风灾害为例

经济全球化背景下,各区域的产业关联强度增加,灾害链也日益复杂,对“一带一路”沿线国家及其部门带来了深远的影响。该文梳理了台风灾害损失传导机制,运用多区域投入产出模型(Multiregional Inputoutput Model,MRIO),以2018年“山竹”台风为例,量化分析“一带一路”沿线20个国家24个部门的关联损失情况。研究认为:①2018年“山竹”台风对我国各部门造成的直接损失约为142.31亿元,间接经济损失达到1272.73亿元;②“山竹”台风灾害对沿线其他国家带来的关联损失为1232.13亿元,其中受影响最严重的是菲律宾;③部门关联损失最大的是制造业,其间接损失是直接损失的60倍。

The Relational Economic Losses Assessment of Typhoon Disaster among the Belt and Road Countries:Taking the Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018 as an Example

Under the background of economic globalization,the intensity of industrial association in each region increases.Disaster chain is becoming more and more complex,which has a profound impact on the“Belt and Road”(B&R)countries.We comb the transmission mechanism of meteorological disaster loss,and uses the multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)to quantitatively analyze the related loss of 20 countries and 24 departments of“B&R”in China’s Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018.The results show that:(1)In 2018,the direct loss caused by Typhoon Mangkhut to all sectors of China was about 14.231 billion yuan,and the indirect economic loss reached 127.273 billion yuan.(2)The related losses caused by Typhoon Mangkhut to 19 countries along the line are 123.213 billion yuan,among which the Philippines,Pakistan,Thailand and Hungary are the most serious.(3)The biggest loss of sector connection is manufacturing,followed by agriculture and fishery,and electricity,water and coal.The indirect economic losses of the direct damaged sectors are more than the direct economic losses.In this article,the indirect economic losses caused by Typhoon Mangkhut to the“B&R”countries are evaluated.This is conducive to fully reflect the impact of the disaster,provide empirical reference for the comprehensive management of meteorological disasters in countries and departments along the line,and provide data support for disaster recovery and reconstruction.