灾体模型的拓展及其在主要气象灾害损失年景评价中的应用

该文拓展了面向气象灾害损失评价的灾体模型,使得其适用性增强。基于新模型,对2003-2018年我国主要气象灾害损失及总损失年景进行了评价分析,结果显示,存在极端偏重灾害损失年景的有暴雨洪涝(2003、2010年)、台风(2005、2006年)、低温冷冻害和雪灾(2005、2008年),另外各气象灾害偏重及以上的年景主要分布在2003-2013年,2014-2018年相对灾体量指数平均值较2003-2013年(不含极端年份)偏少65%~90%;在气象灾害总损失年景评价中增加考虑倒塌房屋和饮水困难人口两个损失要素后,评价涉及的信息更加全面,评价结果更趋完善。

Expansion of Disaster Volume Model and its Application in Annual Evaluation of Major Meteorological Disasters Losses

In this paper,the disaster volume model for meteorological disaster loss assessment is expanded.Then,its applicability is enhanced.Based on the new model,the losses of major meteorological disasters and total losses in China from 2003 to 2018 are evaluated and analyzed.The results show that the years with extreme disaster loss are flood(2003,2010),typhoon(2005,2006),low temperature freezing and snow(2005,2008).The years with more serious meteorological disasters are mainly in 2003-2013,and the average relative disaster volume index in 2014-2018 is 65%~90%less than that in 2003-2013(excluding extreme years).Considering the collapsed houses and people with poor drinking water in the annual evaluation of the total loss of meteorological disasters,the information involved is more comprehensive,and the evaluation results are perfect.