山洪灾害防御研究进展

从防治理念、预报预警和风险评估三个方面,对当今国内外山洪灾害防御研究工作进行梳理,总结和比较了国内外山洪防御研究现状与差异,以期为明晰我国现阶段山洪防御水平、找准未来工作重点提供参考。认为与先进国家相比,我国山洪防治理念对保险和土地利用管理措施关注不够,需在充实"非工程措施"内涵的基础上,对相关工作进行深入探索和实践;我国山洪预报预警的准确率与先进国家尚存一定差距,落后的山区局地降雨监测预报支持系统和高度概化的预报预警模型是其中的重要原因;要素风险评估技术在国内外山洪风险格局分析中得到了普遍应用,不再是山洪防御工作的瓶颈,而物理机制更强的过程风险评估的发展尚不能满足现实需求,是今后研究中需要着力加强的部分。

Research Progress on the Prevention of Flash Flood Disasters

The review of current situations and differences between the domestic and foreign researches on flash flood disaster prevention has been made in order to provide a reference on understanding the domestic prevention level and the key points in the future work based on the three aspects,i.e.prevention and control idea,forecast and early warning and risk assessment.The paper concludes that the measures of insurance and landuse management had been paid little attention in the domestic prevention and control idea comparing with the advanced countries,thus the corresponding contents should be explored and implemented in the future.Besides,there is still a gap needed to be filled on the accuracy rate of flash flood forecast and early warning with the other advanced countries because of the undeveloped software and hardware system on local rainfall monitoring and forecast inner mountain area and the highly simplified hydrological model.The risk assessment based on cause analysis method,which has been used widely in the world,is no longer the bottleneck to the work of flash flood prevention.However,the development of risk assessment based on process analysis method,which has better mathematic expression on flash flood disaster processes,can still hardly meet the actual needs of prevention work,and this part should be strengthened in the future study.