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Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves |
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| Authors: | SARAH CUBAYNES ROGER PRADEL RÉMI CHOQUET CHRISTOPHE DUCHAMP JEAN‐MICHEL GAILLARD JEAN‐DOMINIQUE LEBRETON ERIC MARBOUTIN CHRISTIAN MIQUEL ANNE‐MARIE REBOULET CAROLE POILLOT PIERRE TABERLET OLIVIER GIMENEZ |
| Institution: | 1. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, Campus CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, F‐34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;2. Institut de Mathématiques et Modélisation de Montpellier, UMR 5149, place E. Bataillon, F‐34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;3. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, CNERA Prédateurs et Animaux déprédateurs, Parc Micropolis, F‐05000 Gap, France;4. Université de Lyon, F‐69000, Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F‐69622, Villeurbanne, France;5. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, ZI Mayencin, 5 Allée de Béthléem, F‐38610 Gières, France;6. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, F‐38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored. |
| Keywords: | Canis lupus E‐SURGE individual heterogeneity mark‐recapture mixture models multievent model population size canis lupus E‐SURGE heterogeneidad individual marca‐recaptura modelos mezclados modelo multievento tamañ o poblacional |