基于多因素信息融合的城市供水安全评价系统

为了确定城市供水安全状态，提出1种基于多因素信息融合思想的城市供水安全评价方法。以城市供水安全指标体系为基础，建立供水安全指标与基本概率指派函数焦元的对应关系；采用组合权重确定各评价指标的权重值作为对指标证据的支持程度，通过加权合成方法得到各因素定量、定性信息的基本概率指派函数值，利用证据理论的Dempster组合规则进行因素融合。研究结果表明:以郑州市供水安全指标体系为例，在进行多指标信息融合时与解决证据冲突的融合方法计算结果相同，郑州市2006——2008年城市供水处于不安全状态，2008年以后安全等级逐步升高且趋于稳定状态，可以预测出在未来一段时间郑州市的供水处于安全状态。

Study on evaluation system of urban water supply safety based on multi factor information fusion

In order to determine the status of urban water supply safety, an evaluation method of urban water supply safety based on the ideas of multi factor information fusion was put forward. Based on the index system of urban water supply safety, the corresponding relationship between the indexes of water supply safety and the focal elements of basic probability assignment function was established. The weight values of each evaluation index were determined by using the combination weight and taken as the supporting degree to the indexes evidence, then the values of basic probability assignment function for the quantitative and qualitative information of each factor were obtained by using the weighted synthesizing method, and the factor fusion was carried out by using the Dempster combination rule of evidence theory. The results showed that the comparison results of this method and the fusion method proposed by the former researchers to solve the evidence conflict were the same, which proved the feasibility of this method for solving the evidence conflict. Taking the index system of water supply safety in Zhengzhou as an example, the urban water supply of Zhengzhou from 2006 to 2008 was in the unsafe status, and the safety level increased gradually and tended to the stable status after 2008, so it was predicted that the water supply of Zhengzhou in the future period would be a safe status.