NDVI起伏型时间序列模型初探

NDVI(植被归一化指数 )是描述地表植被特征的重要指标 ,其月动态变化具有明显的周期性规律 .应用起伏型时间序列法对中国及其典型省份的NDVI月动态变化进行模拟 .结果表明 :无论是较规则的周期波动 ,还是幅度较大的不规则波动 ,均呈较高的拟合精度 ,且优于以气象因子所建立的线性回归模型的拟合效果 .说明起伏型时间序列分析可用于NDVI动态变化研究 ,因此丰富了NDVI动态变化定量研究的方法和内容 ,从而为研究全球气候影响下的植被变化提供思路 .图 2表 1参 14

SIMULATION OF NDVI BY WAVE-TYPE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

NDVI was one of the important indexes for describing the vegetation distribution on the earth. The monthly dynamics of NDVI possessed obvious periodicity. Using the wave-type time series method, the monthly dynamic changes of the NDVI in China and its representative provinces were simulated in this paper. The results showed that the simulating precision was very high, whether for the regular diversity or the irregular one, which was satisfactory and better than that of linear regression analysis based on the meteorologic factors. All of those indicated that wave-type time series could be used to simulate NDVI changes and enrich the methods of quantitatiue analysis on the NDVI dynamics, which will give us a new way for the study on the vegetation changes under the global climate changes. Fig 2, Tab 1, Ref 14