安全生产规制总体效果模糊评估模型的构建

为了解当前安全生产规制政策的总体效果与强度,弄清安全生产规制政策的改进方向,完善安全生产监管体制,提高监管的有效性,有必要对安全生产规制效果进行分析和评价。在总结分析安全生产规制效果影响因素的基础上,建立多因素、多层次的安全生产规制总体效果评估指标体系,主要由安全生产规制体制、安全生产规制的内容及方式、规制政策的可靠实施、被规制者特征等4个一级指标及所属14个二级指标构成。借助层次分析法(AHP)和模糊数学方法,构建安全生产规制总体效果模糊定量评估模型。利用该模型试算中国1991—2001年间安全生产规制总体效果,计算结果与实际情况基本相符。但该模型是不完美的,其不能搞清楚各因素变量与规制效果之间存在的具体相关关系。

Building of Fuzzy Model for Overall Effectiveness Evaluation of Work Safety Regulation

It was held by the authors that in order to understand the overall effect and strength of the current work safety regulatory policy and make clear the direction to improving work safety regulatory policy,also improve the work safety regulation system and promote the effectiveness of regulation,it was necessary to analyze and evaluate effects of work safety regulations.A multi-factor,multi-level index system for assessing the overall effects of work safety regulations was established on the basis of analyzing and summarizing of the factors influencing effects of work safety regulations,which was composed of four level index(i.e.the system of work safety regulation,the contents,methods and sanction measures of work safety regulation,regulation reliably-carrying,employer and employees characteristics) and their subordinate 14 sub-indicators.A quantitative assessment model for overall effects of work safety regulations was built by means of AHP and fuzzy mathematics method.Making use of the model,overall effects of work safety regulations in China during the period from 1991 to 2001 were calculated,and the results were in accordance with the actual situation at that time.However,the model was not perfect because it can not find out concrete relationship between regulation effects and factor variables.