| 天津市道路交通风险分析及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈庚,刘茂,李丽芬.天津市道路交通风险分析及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(5):52-55. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈庚 刘茂 李丽芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对天津市的道路交通情况,运用风险理论对引发交通事故的原因进行了分析和辨识。根据收集到的相关信息,运用灰色预测模型,对天津市的道路交通事故发生情况进行预测;对其结果进行了检验,发现未来天津市的道路交通事故的发生将呈上升趋势;且预测数值与实际情况吻合,说明灰色预测模型具有很好的适用性;针对风险辨识的结果提出简要的风险减缓措施,以减少交通事故的发生。
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| 关 键 词： | 道路交通 风险分析 事故预测 风险减缓 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-3033（2006）05-0052-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-07-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-10 |
Road Traffic Risk Analysis and Its Application in Tianjin City |
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| CHEN Geng,LIU Mao,LI Li-fen.Road Traffic Risk Analysis and Its Application in Tianjin City[J].China Safety Science Journal,2006,16(5):52-55. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Geng LIU Mao LI Li-fen |
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| Institution: | Research Center of Urban Public Safety, Nankai University, Tianjin 30071, China |
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| Abstract: | Referring to the road traffic situation in Tianjin, the causation of traffic accidents is analyzed and recognized by the risk theory. The occurrence of traffic accidents in Tianjin is predicted by Gray Model (GM) according to the data collected. The results are verified. It is found that the occurrence of traffic accidents will increase in future. The predicted result complies with the real situation. It demonstrates that the GM has good feasibility. Based on the risk identification a brief risk reducing measure to lower the traffic accidents is proposed. |
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| Keywords: | road traffic risk analysis accident prediction risk reduction |
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