基于RDA-REM模型的我国再生水开发利用潜力

为促进我国再生水资源高效利用，优化水资源配置结构，针对再生水开发利用潜力开展再生水开发利用影响因素分析，剖析再生水资源的特殊性与竞争性，揭示再生水开发利用的驱动机制与约束机制，建立再生水供需双侧协调交互式的潜力指标体系，并基于冗余分析（RDA）筛选潜力预测关键指标，并以此为基础，构建具有随机效应的潜力预测模型（REM），预测全国再生水开发利用潜力.同时，针对REM模型参数的不确定性，刻画10%~90%分位数水平下的参数置信区间.结果发现，生态用水量、建成区供水管道密度、再生水处理设施建设固定资产投资和污水处理总量这4项指标与再生水开发利用紧密相关，为潜力预测关键指标.REM潜力预测模型拟合精度较高，最大拟合误差为-8.5%.未来一段时期内，我国再生水开发利用量将继续保持高速增长趋势，2025年全国开发利用潜力有望达到129亿m³，将有助于优化城市供水结构，提高区域水资源循环利用率.

China's Reuse Water Development and Utilization Potential Based on the RDA-REM Model

To promote the efficient utilization of China''s reuse water resources and optimize the allocation of water resources, an analysis of factors influencing the development and utilization of reuse water resources was conducted. The uniqueness and competitiveness of reuse water resources were analyzed, and the driving and constraint mechanisms were revealed. A potential indicator system for the bilateral coordination of the supply and demand of reuse water was also established. Based on redundancy analysis (RDA), key indicators for the prediction of reuse water development and utilization potential were screened. On this basis, a national-scale reuse water development and utilization potential prediction model was constructed (the random effects model, REM). Given some uncertainty in the parameters of the REM model, the confidence interval ranges of the parameters at the 10%-90% quartile levels were identified. The results show that four indicators (ecological water consumption, density of water supply pipelines in built-up areas, fixed asset investment in the construction of reuse water treatment facilities, and total wastewater treatment) are closely related to the development and utilization of reuse water and, hence, are key indicators. The REM for the potential prediction has a high fitting accuracy, which can effectively reflect the fluctuations in the observed values with a maximum fitting error of -8.5%. China''s reuse water development and utilization will continue to maintain rapid growth long into the future, reaching 12.9 billion m³ by 2025. This will help optimize national urban water supply structures and improve the reuse rate of regional water resources.