Developing alternative land-use scenarios to facilitate natural resource management across jurisdictional boundaries |
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Authors: | E Jamie Trammell J Scott Thomas Dave Mouat Quinn Korbulic Scott Bassett |
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Institution: | 1. Alaska Center for Conservation Science, Geography and Environmental Studies Department, University of Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA;2. Desert Research Institute, Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Reno, NV 89512, USA;3. Technology Services, Regional Services Division, Washoe County, Reno, NV 89512, USA;4. Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA |
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Abstract: | Scenario planning is an effective approach for examining possible futures by exploring the implications and consequences of different policy responses to landscape stressors. We present here a case study that explores plausible futures of urban growth in Southern Nevada, USA that illustrates how scenario analysis can be used to inform region-wide resource management by spatially modeling drivers of change, resource impacts, and potential policy responses. Using a suite of energy, water and biodiversity impact models, we assess the outcomes of the various futures on priority resources, resulting in a clear basis of comparison between alternative policies and their potential outcomes. This case study demonstrates the utility of scenario modeling for natural resource management by exploring crucial policy decisions that might be made in the near-term that could have lasting and sometimes conflicting influences on regional resources over the long term. |
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Keywords: | scenario analysis resource management desert southwest alternative futures |
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