基于分解模型与VEC模型的沈阳经济区经济与环境时空关系研究

选择GDP、工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业废物产生量4个指标,从横向的空间作用关系及纵向的时间作用关系对沈阳经济区经济增长与环境演化关系进行了动态综合分析.对于空间作用关系,采用完全分解模型,利用沈阳经济区内8个城市的面板数据,将经济与环境关系分解为经济规模效应、空间结构效应和技术效应,判定了由于经济增长造成的工业废物排放的增减变化而带来的区域环境压力扰动程度.对于时间作用关系,选择协整与向量误差修正模型(VEC),依次对指标序列进行了单位根检验、VAR估计、Johansen协整检验及向量自回归的VEC修正,进而对沈阳经济区经济与环境指标前期与当期作用关系进行了长期修正与短期校正.结果表明:对于工业废物排放,技术效应发挥了最突出的减量作用,经济效应的增量效应凸显,而空间结构效应的作用不明显;GDP与工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业废物产生量之间的作用关系均经历了由波动到平稳的过程,但在研究期内GDP与工业废水排放之间的稳定性相对较弱,保持GDP与工业废气排放、工业废物产生各自的均衡关系,对各变量的优化有促进作用,而保持GDP与工业废水排放的均衡关系,则对各变量的优化有抑制作用.

Space-time relationship between economy and environment of Shenyang Metropolitan Area based on decomposition model and VEC model

With GDP (1990 constant prices), industrial water discharge, industrial gas discharge and industrial solid wastes selected as the indices, an analysis system on the dynamic evolution between economic development and waste discharge of Shenyang Metropolitan Area in 1990—2009a was described. This analysis mainly included two aspects, the transversal regional relationship and the longitudinally time-functioning relationship. For the regional relationship, the non-residual decomposition model was applied, with the utilization of panel data of Shenyang Metropolitan Area. For the time functioning relationship, the Vector error correction estimates were applied to the long-time revising and short-time adjustment of the co-integration relationship between economy and environment in Shenyang Metropolitan Area. We found that technological effect played a prominent role in the reduction of industrial waste. Economic scale effect enhanced the industrial waste discharge for its continuous function, while spatial structural effect was not obvious. More characterized spatial structure would lead to stronger decrease in industrial waste water and waste solid discharge while pushing up the discharge of industrial solid wastes. As the long-term balancing mechanism was jointly determined by the three revised terms, keeping equilibrium between GDP and industrial gas discharge and between GDP and volume of industrial solid wastes can effectively promote the growth of each index, but keeping the equilibrium between GDP and industrial water discharge can restrain the index development.