大风重现期的风险分析

目前结构抗风设计计算风荷载时所采用的设计风速,是根据重现期即所谓多少年一遇的概率来确定的,只考虑某一风速大风出现的概率,不考虑该大风出现的间隔时间是有一定的局限性的.对某一风速大风出现的间隔时间及其概率分布进行了研究,提出了一种大风重现期的风险分析方法.运用该方法,可以分析得出按年度出现某一特定风速大风的发生概率或风险率.

Risk analysis of return period of strong wind

The term,return period,is widely adopted in various wind loading codes and standards for the determination of design wind speeds. The return period is an alternative statement of annual risk of occurrence. However, the probability of occurrence of a specified wind speed usually varies from year to year. Therefore, it is more reasonable for determining the design wind speed to consider not only the probability of occurrence of a specified wind speed in a period but also the recurrence interval of such a wind speed occurrence. In this paper, the recurrence interval of occurrence of a specified wind speed and its probability distribution is studied, and the probability of occurrence of a specific wind speed at any time (year) can be reasonably determined by the method proposed in this paper.