| Abstract: | During the production of thermonuclear fusion weapons at the Y‐12 National Security Complex (Y‐12 NSC) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, between 1950 and 1963, the regional environment was extensively contaminated by volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Old Salvage Yard (OSY) on the western side of the site has been characterized as the major source of VOCs. In order to analyze the long‐term fate and transport of chlorinated VOC sources, an integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport model was developed for the Y‐12 NSC using the hydrodynamic and transport numerical package MIKE‐SHE. The model was developed considering the recent hydrogeological investigations on preferential flow and transport pathways at the site. The model was calibrated using the recorded groundwater flow and water‐quality data. The modeling simulated migration of the VOC plume for the next 100 years. Considering a range of hydrogeological and transport parameters, uncertainty of the results is discussed. The modeling predicted that tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and 1,2‐dichloroethene may exceed human health–related risk levels for the next 10 to 20 years. However, the contamination is unlikely to migrate to surface water under the current hydrogeological conditions and will decay below acceptable risk levels within approximately 20 years. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. |
