Modelling the impacts of strategic tree plantings on salt loads and flows in the Macquarie river catchment,NSW, Australia

In Australia, problems of dryland and stream salinity have recently become the focus of a National Action Plan. In many river catchments, preliminary stream salt load and salinity targets have been set to define maximum permissible export levels in 2015. Afforestation has been proposed as a strategy for meeting these targets, although several studies suggest that widespread commercial tree plantations are likely to deliver net dis-benefits. However, the impacts on stream salt loads of more localised tree plantings in high salt yielding areas have not been quantified. In this paper we use a simple empirical model to predict the effects of various strategic and non-strategic tree planting scenarios on flows and salt loads in the mid-Macquarie catchment, New South Wales. A simple salt routing model is then used to estimate the effect of these changes on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site for the Macquarie catchment. Results suggest that widespread land management interventions will be required to meet the preliminary salt load targets for this catchment. On their own, small-scale, strategic tree planting in high salt export areas of the mid-Macquarie area will not have a significant impact on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site. While widespread tree plantings may reduce salt loads in the longer term, they are likely to cause streamflow losses in the shorter term. Thus, stream salinities are expected to rise initially, due to the different response times of groundwater and surface water systems to land use change.