我国新化学物质生态风险评价数据外推技术探讨

在进行新化学物质生态环境效应评价时，需应用毒理学数据外推得出环境预测无效应浓度(PNEC)，国外通常使用的外推法有评价系数法和统计外推法. 着重分析了国外进行新化学物质生态风险评价主要采用的数据外推技术，并提出我国开展新化学物质生态环境风险评价推荐使用评价系数外推法. 针对不同环境系统的测试终点外推系数，其推荐值分别确定为:水生系统，1 000，100，50和10；陆生系统，1 000，100，50和10；沉积物系统，100，50和10；污水处理系统微生物，100，10和1；次生毒性，3 000，300，90和30. 

Research on Extrapolation Techniques of Eco-Environmental Risk Assessment for New Chemicals in China

When we investigate the effect of risk assessment for new chemicals, the PNEC must be calculated by extrapolating toxicity data. At present, assessment coefficients and statistical extrapolations are the extrapolation methods usually used overseas. In this paper, the primary overseas extrapolation technologies on eco-environmental risk assessment for new chemicals were summarized and analyzed, and recommended extrapolation factors for eco-environmental risk assessment of new chemicals in China were discussed. The extrapolation factors 1,000, 100, 50, and 10 were recommended for aquatic system; the factors 1，000, 100, 50, 10 were recommended for terrestrial system; the factors 100, 50, 10 were recommended for sediment; the factors 100, 10, 1 were recommended for microorganisms in sewage treatment; and the factors 3，000, 300, 90, 30 were recommended for bioaccumulation and secondary poisoning.