基于能值分析的四川省生态经济系统可持续性评估

运用能值分析方法，对四川省1998～2003年生态经济系统的净能值产出率、能值投入率、能值利用强度、可持续发展指数等指标及其变化趋势进行了定量分析，并与其它国家和地区进行了比较分析。研究表明：①四川省的可持续发展指数曲线呈现先升后降趋势，波动在3.35～1.97之间，曲线的走势与能值/货币比率、人口承载力基本一致。表明四川省经济的发展在人口资源的压力下，仍处于依靠本地资源的欠发达不稳定阶段；②四川省1998～2003年的净能值产出率和能值投入率呈现相异的发展走势，表明资源的利用效率、经济活动的竞争力逐渐降低，而环境资源负载程度、能值使用强度逐渐增强，经济活动加剧；③1998～2003年四川省人均能值使用量总体稳定的上升趋势和电力等高能质能值的缓慢增长趋势，体现了四川省人民生活水准的提高，但相对发达国家和地区还有一定的差距，发展的空间还很大。

ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY IN ECO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMIN SICHUAN PROVINCE BASED ON EMERGY ANALYSIS

Based on emergy analysis,a quantitative and comparative research was carried out by comparing different counties and districts in Sichuan Province in China with selective indices.The curve of sustainable index fluctuated from 3.35 to 1.97,with a trend similar to the change of population carrying capacity and emergy to dollar ratio,indicating that under the pressure of population and resources,the development in Sichuan Province was in a less-developed phase on the basis of native resources.From 1998 to 2003,the emergy investment ratio and net emergy yield ratio showed a reversed trend,revealing the decrease in the use efficiency of resources and economic competitive power,but the increase in environment and resource utilization,emergy density and economic activity.The steady increasing trend in total emergy per capita and the adagio increasing trend of fraction of emergy used from electricity demonstrated the improvement of people's life.However,there is still a greater gap in the utilization of resources,when compared with developed districts.