基于群集动力学模型的密集场所人群疏散问题研究

密集场所人群疏散问题直接关系到大型公共场所的安全保障能力.应用群集动力学理论方法,在密集人群群体流动过程和个体流动过程分析的基础上,对已有的人群疏散数学模型进行改造,使之更加符合实际意义.以实际人群密集场所为例,进行数值仿真,寻求一定人流密度和疏散时间约束下的最佳疏散通道宽度以及关于开放疏散出口数量的最佳疏散策略,以达到最佳的疏散效果.为有效解决应急环境下密集场所人群疏散问题提供了理论依据,可用于指导密集场所建筑物的结构设计改进,以及疏散过程中的调度管理优化等.

Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely gathering place by using crowd dynamics module

In hoping to seek a better way to resolve the huge crowd evacuation problem, this paper intends to present a better method, which is mainly the result of the application of the so-called Crowd Dynamics Module. According to it, the best strategy for disperse large crowds is to guide them to find the broadest exit and choose to open as many as exits to the crowd based on the qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. Analyzing the process of the crowd dispersing and their flowing directions, this module can help to analyze the relationship between the density of the crowd and the evacuation time with different widths of the available exits by dividing the whole process of evacuation into different stages. Knowing the change of the density of the crowd according to the elapse of time, the whole time of evacuation to be needed can be worked out. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that this module should be more credible rather than the former module. Taking a practical densely populated site for an example, this paper applies the module to numerical simulation of the width of the evacuation channels and crowd evacuation approaches, so as to seek the best width of the evacuation channel and the best evacuation strategy about the opened exits under the restriction of a certain crowd density and evacuation time, so that the best evacuation effect can be found. Thus, it can be concluded that the suggested adaptation of the module can help to solve the problem effectively.