| 应用GM(1,1)模型预测阿什河水质变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 王泽斌,马云,叶珍,周军.应用GM(1,1)模型预测阿什河水质变化趋势[J].环境科学与管理,2011,36(4):24-27,39. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王泽斌 马云 叶珍 周军 |
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| 作者单位： | 黑龙江省环境保护科学研究院;东北农业大学资源与环境学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 阿什河水污染防治总体方案研究; 国家科技重大专项“水体污染控制与治理”资助,项目名:松花江水污染防治与水质安全保障关键技术及综合示范项目。项目编号2008ZX07207 |
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| 摘 要： | GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中得到了较为广泛的运用。本文应用GM(1,1)模型对阿什河入松花江口内断面中高锰酸盐指数和氨氮两项指标的浓度变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明:高锰酸盐指数浓度呈上升趋势,氨氮浓度呈下降趋势。对比灰色动态模型群和子模型的预测结果精度,发现对于两极分化的数据,模型群预测结果的关联度低于子模型。本文将为制定阿什河水质改善方案提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 阿什河 高锰酸盐指数 氨氮 关联度 |
Water Quality Prediction of Ashi River with GM(1,1) Model |
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| Wang Zebin,Ma Yun,Ye Zhen,Zhou Jun.Water Quality Prediction of Ashi River with GM(1,1) Model[J].Environmental Science and Management,2011,36(4):24-27,39. |
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| Authors: | Wang Zebin Ma Yun Ye Zhen Zhou Jun |
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| Institution: | Wang Zebin1,Ma Yun1,Ye Zhen1,Zhou Jun1,2(1.Heilongjiang Research Academy of Environmental Protection,Harbin 150056,China,2.Resource and Environment College,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China) |
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| Abstract: | GM(1,1) model has been widely used in the prediction of water quality.In this paper,we mainly predicted the trendency changes of CODMn and NH3-N concentration in Ashi River.The results showed that the concentration of CODMn increased while the NH3-N decreased.What should be noticed was that for the polarization data,the correlation degree of grey dynamic model group was lower than single model.The results will service for the water quality improvment in Ashi River. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model Ashi River CODMn NH3-N correlation degree |
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