基于STIRPAT模型的中国旅游业碳排放影响因素分析

采用"自下而上"的CO_2排放计算方法,对1995—2014年中国各区域旅游业CO_2排放量进行测算,从动态视角分析各区域旅游业CO_2排放总量及旅游接待人次、人均旅游收入、旅游业CO_2排放强度和旅游交通CO_2排放占比等影响因素的变化趋势特征,并基于STIRPAT模型对旅游业CO_2排放的主要影响因素进行定量分析.结果显示:各区域旅游业CO_2排放总量均呈逐年上升的趋势,且不同区域各影响因素的作用存在显著差异;其中,人均旅游收入对中国旅游业碳减排压力的弹性变化区间最小,仅从0.156变化到0.287,旅游交通CO_2排放占比的弹性变化区间最大,其CO_2排放占比每提高1%,东部地区旅游业CO_2排放总量将提高0.239%,而中部地区仅提高0.013%;旅游业CO_2排放强度是抑制碳排放的关键因素;研究期内,分析结果不支持倒"U"型环境Kuznets曲线的观点.最后,根据上述结论提出差异化的区域碳减排调控对策.

Analysis of impact factors of CO2 emissions from tourism in China based on STIRPAT model

By using "bottom-up" approach, this paper aims to estimate the CO₂ emissions from tourism in China from 1995 to 2014, and the main impact factors such as number of tourists, tourism income per capita, carbon intensity of tourism and percentage of CO₂ emissions from tourism transport are also quantitatively analyzed based on the extended STIRPAT model. The results indicate that the CO₂ emissions from tourism in China and its three economic zones have an increasing trend over the past two decades, and the coefficient of elasticity also presents significant differences between regions. The elastic variation range of tourism income per capita is the smallest, only from 0.156 to 0.287. The impact of percentage of CO₂ emissions from tourism transport also varies greatly, e.g. when the percentage of CO₂ emissions from tourism transport increases by 1%, the CO₂ emissions in the eastern region increases by 0.239% while only 0.013% in the central region. The carbon intensity of tourism plays a dominant role in the CO₂ emissions control, so the improvement of energy efficiency should be one of the main approaches to CO₂ reduction in the near future. There is no relationship between the tourism economic development and environment depravation in the reciprocal "U" environmental Kuznets curve, it therefore becomes essential for China to formulate differentiated regional regulation and control policies for CO₂ reduction according to functionary mechanism of the impact factors.