太湖水质变化与经济发展关系研究—基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)方法

本文利用1979-2010年五项太湖水质指标时间序列数据,通过拟合太湖水质环境库兹涅茨曲线对太湖水质与经济发展之间关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:总磷、总氮和高锰酸钾指数与经济发展之间存在典型的倒"U"型曲线关系,叶绿素a和化学需氧量与经济发展之间的关系则可以用倒"N"型三次曲线的右半部分刻画。二十世纪末以来开展的一系列太湖流域污染治理措施对水质环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的出现甚至提前起到很大的作用。

Study on Relationship between Water Quality Change and Economic Development of Taihu Lake

The Environmental Kuznets Curve of water quality in Taihu Lake is fitted by using time series data of five water qual- ity indicators from 1979 to 2010, and the relationship between Taihu Lake water quality change and economic development is dis- cussed in this paper. The result shows, for total phosphorus, total nitrogen and potassium permanganate index, the typical inverted ＂U＂ shaped curve is found; the relationship between chlorophyll a and economic development can be described by the right part of inverted ＂N＂ shaped curve, this law also can be found on indicator chemical oxygen demand. A series of Taihu Lake Basin pollution control measures undertaken since the end of the twentieth century played a big role on the appearance of turning point of Environ- mental Kuznets Curve.