基于模拟的腐蚀管道可靠性分析

腐蚀失效是压力管道失效的主要模式之一。通常采用腐蚀管道剩余强度估算的方法 ,评价腐蚀管道的安全性。腐蚀管道的剩余寿命则采用可靠性理论计算得到。以各种局部腐蚀缺陷的评定方法来建立模拟模型 ,直接采用蒙特卡罗模拟可以计算得到不同时间下的管道的失效概率 ,同时根据目标可靠度来确定腐蚀管道的剩余寿命。含多个腐蚀缺陷的管道的失效概率需要考虑缺陷间的相关性。采用模拟方法可以计算失效概率的秩相关 ,避免采用独立假设来计算管道的失效概率

Simulation Based Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipeline

Corrosion is the primary failure mode of pressurized pipelines. Usually, the method of determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines is used for reliability assessment, by which the remaining life of corroded pipelines could be calculated. By assessing various local corrosive defects, a simulation model is established, the probability of failure at different time period could be estimated by the Monte Carlo integration technique. The remaining life of corroded pipelines could be determined by the simulation result. The correlation of defects must be considered when calculating the probability of failure. The rank correlation between the defects could be calculated by the simulation method so as to avoid adopting independent assumption when calculating failure probability of the pipelines.