基于知识地图的民用航空安全信息事件分析

安全信息的深入分析是数据驱动的安全管理基础。为深入挖掘民航安全信息的价值,分析不安全事件的发展和演化过程,预测事件可能引发的后果及可能性,以2011—2015年民航安全信息网收集的390起重着陆事件为样本,结合事件链因果关系分析,运用知识地图分析法,按照事件发展演化过程建立样本信息中包含知识信息及其因果关系、各事件链间的相关关系、不同后果事件演化的可能性的重着陆事件知识地图。结果表明,该知识地图能够获取重着陆事件在时间、地点、机型、运行阶段、原因、后果及可能的预防及管控重点,可以实现一起或多起重着陆事件信息的知识分析,发现可能存在的安全风险,预判引发严重后果事件的可能性,为有效实施风险管理提供依据。

Analysis of the civil aviation safety information causing events based on the knowledge map analysis method

This paper is inclined to make an analysis of the civil aviation safety information causing events based on the knowledge map analysis method with the event chain causation and knowledge map analysis methods,which serves as the basis of the datadriven safety management system. To make an exploration of the importance of the civil aviation safety information and pursue the evolution of the reckless events to predict the likely-to-be disastrous consequences of such events,the historical data of 390 hard landing events collected by the Civil Aviation Safety Network under the Civil Aviation Administration of China from 2011 to 2015 was chosen as the study samples and analyzed based on the eventchain causation and knowledge map analysis methods. As is known,the knowledge map of the hard landing events has been established through the analysis of the knowledge of the logic relationship of the event causes and the eventual accidents in accordance with the evolutionary process analysis of the samples. The results of such historical accident events clearly demonstrate that the said knowledge map is in a position to get to identify and determine the prevention and the management focus of hard landing events in such aspects as the time,place,type,the operation phase,rationality,consequences and the likelihood. For example, it can identify and determinate the main causes of the hard landing events of each G value interval with the improper control over the control lever of the pilots,which may involve the consequences of the aircraft secondary touchdown in a great probability. Furthermore,the hard landing knowledge map can also exercise the construction,organization,delivery and guidance to a great deal of safety information and knowledge,and make rational logic organization for other related delicate data,which is available and beneficial through knowledge analysis for one or other related information items with the hard landing events and get rid the potential safety hazards so as to anticipate the probabilities that may trigger off serious consequences. Thus,it can be seen that the hard landing knowledge map should be in a position to help the aviation enterprises or industries to prevent and manage such hard landing events in accordance with their own particular situations to promote the comprehensive management and control of such events in the flight commanding and operation process so as to lay down a profound basis for the effective safety risk control.