管制员不安全行为干预策略研究

为了制定科学合理的干预策略、防止由管制员导致的两机相撞等不安全事件发生,运用系统动力学方法(SD)构建了管制员不安全行为干预策略模型,以S空管站为例,运用Vensim软件仿真模拟不同安全奖惩政策对管制员不安全行为的干预结果。结果表明:安全奖励政策可以有效干预管制员的差错行为,安全惩罚政策可以有效干预管制员的违章行为;高强度奖励政策-中强度惩罚政策组合干预效果最佳,即当对管制员奖励强度达管制员月薪的3.2倍,惩罚强度达管制员月薪的0.82倍,管制员不安全行为造成的不安全事件率能够降低85.6%。

Intervention strategy towards the unsafe behaviours of the air-traffic controllers

In order to develop a reasonable and rational intervention strategy to prevent from the happening of the unsafe behaviors and safetyless risk events,such as the air-collisions by any two airplanes,the present paper intends to establish a constructive model to control such behaviors of the air-traffic controllers via the dynamic system so as to achieve the entire air traffic control success.The aforementioned model is supposed to consist of two kinds of loops,in which the first loop is supposed to provide positive feedbacks,such as the penalty policy-regulation loop (R1),whereas the second loop involves the training qualities loop (R2) and the safety management loop (R3).Beyond the aforementioned ones,the other loops may likely to involve the production of the negative feedbacks,including the incentive policy-error loop (B1) and the error-tired loop (B2).The above said model has been verified to be effective through the validity check via the repetitive simulated method,in which a comparison has been made by the systematic recordings for the 6 years from 2009 to 2015 of a certain air-control station known as S unit simulated by the said model.Then,we have proposed a set of three scenarios to discuss how the incentive policy.,the penalty policy,and the joint application of the incentive policy and penalty policy which may affect the unsafe behaviours of the air-traffic controllers.Of course,the third scenario is also made of three strategies:the in centive policy in combination with the intensity penalty policy,the highly incentive policy in combination with the medium intensity penalty policy,and the highly incentive policy in combination with the lower intensive penalty policy.The results of the experimental application of the above startegies show that the incentive policy can effectively regulate and restrict the mindless or unsafe behaviors of the controllers while the penalty policy can effectively prevent from or reduce the unsafe behaviors of the AT controllers.Furthermore,when the highly incentive policy is used along with the medium intensity penalty policy,that is to say,when the unit rewards to the said controllers at 3.2 times as much as the monthly salary every year whereas the penalty ratio of the monthly salary every year is only 0.82 times based on their safety performance,the best effect can be found to reduce 85.6％ of the rate of such unsafe behaviors of the air controllers.