基于D-S证据理论的民用航空情报原始资料上报工作风险评价和安全对策研究

为提升民用航空情报原始资料上报工作的安全管理水平,对2010—2015年的859起不安全事件进行差错原因分析,运用SHELL模型构建原始资料上报工作的风险指标体系。风险指标体系由工作人员的素质和能力、操作符合性、工作系统的完好性、专业培训情况等12个一级指标及专业知识、行业规章符合性、人才队伍建设、管理制度执行等45个二级指标构成。为降低各类不确定性因素的影响,基于D-S证据理论进行风险评价研究,以10位行业专家的调查结果为基础,计算合成了12个一级风险指标的风险水平支持度。结果表明,素质和能力、操作符合性情况、行业规章完好性和专业培训处于高度风险水平,工作完好性、工作系统完好性、工作软件维护、工作标准统一性、人力资源和管理制度处于中度风险水平,工作沟通和核实回复处于低度风险水平。对处在高度风险水平的风险指标开展安全对策研究,提出提高工作人员入职标准、定期组织开展专业培训、编写行业通用的培训教材、修订完善现有行业规章、加大违规操作处罚力度等风险控制措施。

On the evaluation and safety-guaranteeing countermeasures of the original aeronautic information submission risk based on the D-S evidence theory

Aiming to improve and heighten the safety analysis and management level of the original information submission to the supervisors, this paper has divided such safety management standards into 3 working stages. The said three stages are known as those of collection,approval and inspection of the original information errors that should account for the causes of the 859 unsafe events taking place in the period of 2010-2015 on the basis of SHELL mode along with the system and operation analysis method. To improve and heighten such original information submission standard,we have been trying to make the proactive hazards identification and the original information submission risk index system to be established by the SHELL model. In it,the risk index system of the original information submission model is supposed to include the 12 first indexes,such as the quality and ability of the working personnel,the conformity of the operation,the integrity of the working system and the level of professional training,etc, with the other 45 second-level indexes, such as professional knowledge,the fidelity and sense of responsibility and discipline of the professional area,the team-spirit construction and management in accordance with the team-construction model. To reduce the influence of all kinds of the likely indefinite factors,we have also made the evaluation investigation of the risk index system so as to support the first index level based on the reference to the rating results of the 10 experts and the AHP method. The results of the investigation and evaluation have thus shown that,the quality and ability,the operation subordination,the conformity to the professional discipline and professional training rules should also be the key to dealing with the high level risks. Therefore,it is demanded to practice the integrity of work and the work system, to maintain the professional job software,to keep the integrity of the working standard,human resource quality and the risk management system in communication and verify the sense of responsibility even in the jobs of lower risk level. Furthermore,we have also analyzed the hazards of the high risk level indexes via the accident-involving theory,so that the risk control measures can be faithfully fulfilled,such as the staff members'entry standard to be guaranteed,and the professional skills training to be done regularly. And,for this purpose,the sections in charge of the training should be on duty to compile and deliver the generally needed professional training materials,so as to improve and revise the professional regularities in existence,as well as to impose the needed violation punishments and enhance the supervision of the professional behaviors with the aim to improve and heighten the safety operation level of the aeronautical original information submission.