| 农业气象灾害对江苏淮北地区冬小麦产量的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐为根,高苹,张旭晖,吴洪颜.农业气象灾害对江苏淮北地区冬小麦产量的影响分析[J].灾害学,2002,17(1):41-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐为根 高苹 张旭晖 吴洪颜 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京气象学院,环境科学系,江苏,南京,210044
2. 江苏省农业气象与卫星遥,感中心,江苏,南京,210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省自然科学基金课题“旱涝灾害对江苏农作物生产影响的评估决策系统” (BK990 6 0 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用拉朗日插值法推算江苏省淮北地区冬小麦在无农业气象灾害条件下从1960－2000年41年的期望产量，并用用S软件建立气象灾害对冬小麦产量影响的逐步回归模型，分析了各类农业气象灾害对产量的影响。对指导淮北地区有针对性地防御农业气象灾害，降低其对冬小麦产量的 影响有重要的实际意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业气象灾害 冬小麦 产量 江苏 淮北地区 拉格朗日插值法 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811X(2002)01-0041-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年7月13日 |
The analysis of influence of agrometeological disasters on winter wheat in Huaibei district of Jiangsu province |
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| XU Wei gen ,GAO Ping ,ZHANG Xu hui ,WU Hong yan.The analysis of influence of agrometeological disasters on winter wheat in Huaibei district of Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2002,17(1):41-45. |
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| Authors: | XU Wei gen GAO Ping ZHANG Xu hui WU Hong yan |
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| Institution: | XU Wei gen 1,GAO Ping 2,ZHANG Xu hui 2,WU Hong yan 2 |
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| Abstract: | The expected yield of winter wheat without agrometeorological disasters in the past 41 years from 1996 to 2000 in Huibei district of Jiangsu province is calculated with the method of Lagrange interpolation A stepwise regression model of influence of agrometeorological disasters on winter wheat is made by use of SAS The influence of different agrometeorological disasters on yield of winter wheat is analyzed This research is of guiding significance to the prevention of agrometeorological disasters and mitigation of their influence on yield of winter wheat |
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| Keywords: | agrometeorological disasters yield of winter wheat analysis Huaibei district of Jiangsu province |
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