| 深圳市建设用地面积动态变化预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李全,张晓通,姜文亮,吕华新.深圳市建设用地面积动态变化预测[J].资源开发与市场,2007,23(2):105-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李全 张晓通 姜文亮 吕华新 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学,资源与环境科学学院,湖北,武汉,430079 |
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| 摘 要： | 选择与建设用地相关性大的GDP、财政支出和全社会固定资产投资三项指标为自变量，以年建设用地为因变量，采用新型优化组合算法，基于单变量拟合方程对建设用地增量的精度贡献，构建多元非线性组合模型，预测深圳市2006年、2007年新增建设用地量分别为39．21km^2、36．32km^2。分析发现，在三项指标中财政支出指标对建设用地增量预测贡献度最大，其次为GDP，最后是固定资产投资。
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| 关 键 词： | 多元非线性模型 优化组合 建设用地 深圳市 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141(2007)02-0105-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-18 |
Forecast to Construction Land Dynamic Demand of Shenzhen City |
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| LI Quan,ZHANG Xiao-tong,JIANG Wen-liang,LU Hua-xin.Forecast to Construction Land Dynamic Demand of Shenzhen City[J].Resource Development & Market,2007,23(2):105-107. |
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| Authors: | LI Quan ZHANG Xiao-tong JIANG Wen-liang LU Hua-xin |
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| Institution: | School of Resource and Environment Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China |
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| Abstract: | GDP, financial expenditure and total investment in fixed assets were selected as independent variable, and construction land area was selected as dependent variable. An improved optimum combination forecasting method were used to produce a multi - parameter nonlinear model. This method calculated the value of each coefficient based on the precision contribution of the single variable simulation model to the predicted increments of construction land area. Construction land demand of Shenzhcn City were forecasted then with satisfactory results. |
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| Keywords: | multi - parameter nonlinear model optimum combination construction land Shenzhen City |
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