突发事故危害期估算模式研究

 针对大气环境突发事故造成的危害，在高斯扩散模式基础上，引入危害半径变化与时间及危害期变化与横风向距离呈线性关系的假设，得出危险源附近各处受危险源突发事故危害的危害时间长短（危害期）一系列定量估算公式，使用方便，结果精确，为环境风险评价提供了有效的工具，可广泛应用于环境风险评价与管理、风险工程设计、风险责任保险等各个领域与事故应急计划制定、事故抢险工作实施.

Estimation model study on harm duration of sudden accident

Aimed at the harm resulted from sudden accident of air environment, supposition is introduced, based on Gaussian diffesion model, that there are linear relations between the harm radius and the time and between the harm duration and the distance of cross-wind. Thus, a series of formulae is obtained, which could be used to estimate the beginning moment, the end moment and the harm duration of sudden accident near the accident occuring area. Those formulae are convenient in use and accurate in results, so as to provide an effective tool for environmental risk assessment, and can be used widely in the design of risk engineering, insurance of risk duty, environmental risk assessment and management,and also in establishing emergency plan and carrying out rescuing work.