城市区域土地利用变化及驱动机制研究 --以长江三角洲地区为例

以正处于一个新的成长期的城市群——长江三角洲地区为例，分析其工业化、城市化进程中的城市区域土地利用变化态势及内在驱动机理。通过对长江三角洲地区城市区域各地类面积比例的动态分析，发现研究区土地利用变化的主要方面是建设用地比例的增加以及耕地和水域面积比例的减少。在此基础上建立驱动因素体系，利用相关分析和主因子分析方法，并构建城市区域土地利用变化驱动力模型，得出长江三角洲城市区域土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是人口的增长和非农化、经济总量的增加以及劳动力的非农化。但是不同的时期，主要驱动力随着社会经济发展的特点和土地利用的特点不断变化：人口的非农化(城市化率)的作用不断增强；经济总量增长的作用明显的减弱；第三产业的发展对建设用地比例增加的驱动作用越来越强。

LAND USE CHANGE AND DRIVING MECHANISM RESEARCH IN CITY REGION --THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA AS AN EXAMPLE

This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta——a group of fast developing cities as an example to analyzes the land use change and driving forces during the urbanization process. By analysing the rate of each type of land and the factor analysis, the major change in this area is the rate increase of constructed land and decrease of cultivated land. In this respect, driving force factor system is formed and a regression model has been constructed. By related analysis and principle analysis,It is concluded that the major driving forces are the population increase and urbanization, the increase of economic output and the urbanization of labors. However, the major driving force changes as the social economy development and land use characteristics vary. The urbanization and the tertiary industry development become stronger to drive the land use change in the city region of the Yangtze River Delta, while the growth of total economy is a weak driving force.