直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型

为有效提高直升机电力作业安全评价能力,落实通用航空作业标准化和规范化管理,本文以直升机电力作业中人员因素、直升机设备因素、电力作业设备因素、自然环境因素、机场环境因素、组织因素、规章管理因素7个模块为一级指标建立安全评价指标体系。结合多位专家给出的概率语义值,基于模糊集与改进的证据融合理论量化各指标风险程度,同时采用三角模糊数法确定中间节点条件概率,最后利用贝叶斯网络模型灵活推理能力,提出直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型。通过对某通用航空公司直升机电力作业安全状况评价分析可知,企业组织因素、电力作业设备因素以及人员因素为主要薄弱环节,需加强管理,可通过提高从业人员的安全防范意识、提高设备可靠性以及加强人员培训等措施对风险进行预防。

Nonlinear Dynamic Safety Assessment Model of Helicopter Power Operation

In order to effectively improve the ability of helicopter power operation safety assessment and implement the operations standardization and management normalization in general aviation,a safety assessment index system is established based on the seven factors of first level indicators,i.e.personnel,helicopter equipment,power equipment,natural environment,airport environment,organization and regulations management.A nonlinear dynamic safety assessment model for helicopter power operation is put forward through quantifying the risk level of ever y indictor based on the fuzzy and improved evidence fusion theory,identifying the conditional probability of middle nodes with triangular fuzzy number method,enhancing the reasoning ability with Bayesian network model combining with several experts'semantic values.A safety situation assessment for helicopter power operation is carried out taking a general aviation cooperation as an example.It is concluded that enterprise organization,power operation equipment and personnel are the main vulnerable spot,and the risk can be prevented and controlled by taking measures such as increasing the safety precaution consciousness,improving the equipment reliability and enhancing the personnel training.