Ethical aspects of scientific incertitude in environmental analysis and decision making

There have been too many environmental surprises during the last century—too many occasions where decisions relative to the environment were taken in the belief that there was a well-established, scientific basis for the decisions and faith in the expertise that provided the information. The surprises illustrate that the knowledge base and models in some cases do not even come close to reality. The reason may be incertitude, which covers the spectrum from determinism, uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy. In relation to risk assessment and sustainability, society, politicians and professionals have to come to terms with the fact that ignorance plays a far greater role than normally acknowledged by natural scientists and engineers.