Evaluating the cost of flood damage based on changes in extreme rainfall in Japan

We estimated the cost of flood damage using numerical simulations based on digital map data and the flood control economy investigation manual submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism in Japan. The simulation was carried out using a flood model incorporating representative precipitation data for all of Japan. The economic predictions, which estimate flood damage caused by extreme rainfall for the return periods of 5, 10, 30 50, and 100 years, are as follows: (1) the cost of flood damage increases nearly linearly with increases in extreme precipitation; (2) assuming that flood protection is completed for a 50-year return period of extreme rainfall, the benefit of flood protection for a 100-year return period of rainfall is estimated to be 210 billion USD; (3) the average annual expected damage cost for flooding is predicted to be approximately 10 billion USD per year, based on the probability of precipitation for a return period of 100 years and assuming that flood control infrastructures will be completed within the 50-year return period and will be able to protect from flooding with a 50-year return period; (4) urban and rural areas are predicted to suffer high and low costs of damage, respectively. These findings will help to derive measures to enhance flood protection resulting from climate change.