滑坡灾害空间预测结果的评价方法

介绍了目前对滑坡灾害空间预测结果进行定量评价的3种方法,并对每种方法进行了分析和比较。基于将预测结果与历史滑坡相对比的评价思路,引入了"滑坡比"的概念,定义其为:相应易滑度指标值的邻域所包含的预测单元中,曾发生滑坡的单元所占比例;并指出,好的预测结果应满足:易滑度指标值越大,滑坡比越大,且指标值相对较大时,相应滑坡比应较接近于1。在此基础上,提出采用预测率函数曲线所围面积之比,即"面积比"评价指标来对预测结果进行评价,并通过理论分析和实例,证明了该评价方法较现有方法确有改进。

Assessment method for results of spatial prediction of regional landslides

Three assessment methods for results of the spatial prediction of regional landslides were summarized and analyzed in detail.A concept named landslide-ratio is presented which can be used to represent the probability of landslides for a certain susceptibility-index value.Based on the principle which should be satisfied for a good result,i.e.the larger susceptibility-index value should be with a Landslide-ratio which is nearly one,and the larger the susceptibility-index value,the greater the landslide-ratio,...