气候变化下汉中盆地水稻产量变化研究

深入分析气候变化下汉中盆地水稻产量变化响应,可在进一步探究影响研究区水稻产量主要气象要素的同时,为地方水稻生长期内气象灾害的防控提供科学依据。为了解研究区水稻生长季主要的气象影响因子,文章基于1951—2014年汉中盆地多测站日气温、降水量、积温及气温日较差数据和水稻单产资料分离的气象单产数据,综合运用线性趋势、趋势系数、HP滤波法、Morlet小波分析等方法,在分析汉中盆地水稻气象产量和生长季各气象要素变化趋势的同时,推求了水稻气象产量和各主要气象要素序列的显著周期。研究结果表明：1）近64 a汉中盆地4—9月水稻生长季平均气温和≥10 ℃活动积温变化均呈上升趋势,气温日较差呈下降趋势,降水量变化趋势不明显;2）汉中盆地各气象要素与水稻气象单产的显著周期分析结果显示水稻气象单产第一主周期与各气象要素的第二主周期相对应,均存在13~14 a时间尺度的主周期变化;3）各气象要素对水稻气象产量的影响各异,不同气候背景下影响水稻气象产量的主导气象因素不同。论文研究结果可为汉中盆地水稻生产的优化布局及地方经济社会发展提供参考依据。

Study on the Change of Rice Yield in Hanzhong Basin under Climate Change

Deep analysis of change of rice production under climate change in Hanzhong Basin could explore the main meteorological factors affecting rice production, meanwhile provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of meteorological disasters during the local rice growing season. In order to investigate the main meteorological factors affecting rice growth in the study area, this paper extracted rice yield during 1951-2014 years in Hanzhong Basin based on the data of daily temperature, precipitation, accumulated temperature, diurnal temperature range and meteorological yield of rice per unit area. The methods of linear trend, trend coefficient, HP filter and Morlet wavelet analysis were used synthetically to analyze the trend of meteorological yield of rice and meteorological factors during growing season in Hanzhong Basin and calculate the significant cycle of rice meteorological yield and main meteorological elements sequence. The results were as following: 1) In Hanzhong Basin, the trend of the mean temperature and active accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ in rice growing season (April-September) tended to rise during the last 64 years, and the daily temperature range tended to decrease, while the trend of precipitation was not obvious. 2) The significant cycle analysis of the meteorological elements and the rice meteorological yield per unit area in Hanzhoung Basin showed that the first main cycle of rice meteorological yield per unit area corresponds to the second main cycle of each meteorological element, having a principal period of about 13-14 years. 3) The impacts of various meteorological factors on the yield of rice are different, and the dominant meteorological factors affecting the meteorological yield of rice are different in different climatic background. The research results could provide a reference for the development of rice planting and local economic and social development in Hanzhong Basin.