碳排放约束下耕地利用效率的区域差异及其影响因素

论文将耕地利用碳排放纳入耕地利用效率的测度框架中,综合运用SBM-Undesirable模型、基尼系数分解模型和Tobit模型对中国大陆31个省区2003—2015年耕地利用效率的差异格局及影响因素进行定量测度。结果表明：1）总体来看,大部分省份考虑碳排放指标后形成的耕地利用效率值与不考虑碳排放指标相比都有不同幅度的下降;2）从SBM模型测度结果来看,不同尺度耕地利用效率在研究期内都呈上升趋势且表现出明显的区域差异,其中,东北地区的年平均耕地利用效率最高,中部地区最低;3）全国和四大区域耕地利用效率的基尼系数都有不同幅度的降低,地区差距有所缓解,组内差异缩小是中国耕地利用效率地区差距缩小的主要来源;4）耕地资源禀赋、经济发展水平、科学技术发展和政府重视程度等是影响耕地利用效率差异的重要因素,但是在不同样本分组情况下,不同因素的影响方向和强度存在差异;5）除了在技术层面探寻耕地利用减排路径及合理规模外,还应该在制度和政策层面对碳排放进行规范和引导,实现耕地低碳、高效利用及社会经济绿色发展。

Regional Differences and Its Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Use Efficiency under Carbon Emission Constraint

This paper put the carbon emission into the measurement framework of cultivated land use efficiency, and analyzed the regional differences and influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency of 31 provinces in the mainland of China from 2003 to 2015 employing SBM-Undesirable model, Gini coefficient decomposition model and Tobit model. The results showed that: 1) In general, when considering the carbon emissions, the cultivated land use efficiency of most provinces reduced in different rates. 2) From the result of SBM-Undesirable model, we can see that the cultivated land use efficiency showed a fluctuated upward trend in different scale and had significant regional differences that the average annual cultivated land use efficiency was the highest in the northeastern region and lowest in the central region. 3) The Gini coefficient of cultivated land use efficiency reduced in different ranges in the whole country and in the four major regions, which means the regional gap was narrowed and the reductions of inner-regional difference caused the narrowing of regional gap of cultivated land use efficiency in China. 4) Cultivated land endowment, economic development level, scientific and technological development and government attention are important factors influencing cultivated land use efficiency, but there are differences in the direction and intensity of different factors when dividing sample groups in different ways. 5) To achieve low-carbon, high efficiency of cultivated land use and green development of social economic, we not only need to explore the reduction path and reasonable scale of cultivated land use emission with techniques, but also need to regulate and guide carbon emission by systems and policies.