哈尔滨市城市发展中水资源的需水预测分析与研究

以哈尔滨市为例,依据"十一五"纲要,对经济社会发展过程中城市2010年、2030年和2050年三个水平年的需水量进行模拟预测,按照全面节水、量水而行、以水定供、以供定需的原则,对城镇生活需水,工业需水,农业需水进行预测,充分考虑随着经济的发展,科技水平的提高,经济结构的调整,节水器具的推广,节水灌溉技术的普及,水价的提高,人民节水意识的增强,用水定额会不断降低.旨在提供一种预测方法,展示预测过程,不为结果,旨在为今后相关深入研究提供计算理论支持.

Analysis and Research on Water Demand Forecast of Urban Water Resources in Harbin

Taking Harbin as an example, according to the outline of"Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the water demand of cities in 2010,2030 and 2050 is simulated and predicted in the process of economic and social development. According to the compre-hensive water saving, water consumption,water needingand water offering of the principle, combined with the regional water struc-ture and industrial structure, the urban living water demand, industrial water demand, agricultural water demand were forecasted, fully consideringthat the water quotas will continue to decline with the improvement of economic development and technological level, the adjustment of economic structure, the promotion of water-saving appliances, the popularity of water-saving irrigation technology, the enhancement of water prices, and strengthening of people's water conservation awareness. It is intended to provide a predictive approach that presents a predictive process that is not an outcome and is intended to provide theoretical support for fu-ture in-depth research.