东南沿海经济发达地区耕地数量的动态变化及其驱动力研究

东南沿海经济发达地区的耕地变化较为显著，研究该地区耕地变化的趋势与驱动机制，对促进地区经济持续发展具有重要意义。选取绍兴市作为典型案例，探寻该市耕地数量的时空变化特征，并将主成分分析和多元逐步回归分析相结合，揭示该市耕地数量变化的驱动机制。研究结果表明：绍兴市耕地数量变化的时空特征显著，耕地呈现逐年减少的总体趋势；耕地减少以建设占用和以市场为导向的农业结构调整为主，以基本建设投入力度的加大和人们生活收入水平的提高为主要动因。研究结果可为绍兴市合理开发利用有限的耕地资源，促进区域社会与经济的可持续发展提供一定的科学依据，并为进一步研究东南沿海经济发达地区的耕地变化提供借鉴。

DYNAMICS AND DRIVING FORCES IN THE CHANGE OF AREAS OF CULTIVATED LAND IN DEVELOPED COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST CHINA——A CASE STUDY OF SHAOXING CITY

Because of the remarkable change in cultivated land in well developed southeast littoral areas, it is of great importance for us to analyze the trend in change of cultivated land and its main driving forces in order to achieve a sustainable economic development in these areas.By choosing Shaoxing City as a typical area, the trend in the change of cultivated land was analyzed with temporal and spatial differences identified. As a result of the principal component analysis and a multiple stepwise regressive analysis, the main driving forces affecting arable land changes were then discussed. The spatial temporal features of cultivated land change in Shaoxing were notable, and the cultivated land has decreased year by year. Moreover, the reduction in plowland of Shaoxing in recent years was mainly due to the rapid development of economy, the improvement of people's lives and the increase of capital input, that is to say, the market oriented agricultural restructuring and city construction have occupied the majority of cultivated land. The analytical results and conclusions of this paper will not only provide scientific basis for the rational use of cultivated land and their effective protection for the sustainable development in Shaoxing city, but also provide an important reference for further study on plowland change in the well developed littoral areas of southeast China.