污染排放与环境质量关系模型构建与应用

为分析污染排放与环境质量的相互影响,构建了环境质量与污染排放关系模型,将环境质量与污染排放的关系划分为低污染-高质量、高污染-高质量、高污染-低质量、低污染-低质量这4种类型,探讨不同类型间的演变路径,并以2005~2010年中国各地区数据对建立的模型进行实证分析.结果表明,中国大部分省区属于高污染-低质量类型,且研究期内类型格局未发生明显变化;大部分省区环境质量指数高于污染排放指数,污染物排放量超过环境容量,污染物减排是各地所面临的首要环境问题;中国目前正处于环境治理的关键时期,应防止经济系统对环境系统的过度扰动.研究结果有助于各地区研判环境形势,推进污染减排,从而最终改善环境质量.

Establishment and Application of Pollutant Discharge-Environment Quality Model

In order to explore the mutual influence between pollutant discharge and environment quality, relation models of pollutant discharge and environmental quality were established, and the relationship was divided into four types, low pollutant discharge-high environmental quality, high pollutant discharge-high environmental quality, high pollutant discharge-low environmental quality, and low pollutant discharge-low environmental quality. The evolution paths from one type into another were also discussed. The regional data in 2005 and 2010 was used to validate the pollutant discharge-environmental quality models. The results showed that most regions of China belonged to the high pollutant discharge-low environmental quality type, and the pollutant discharge-environmental quality type didn't vary too much during the 2005-2010 period. In the majority of provinces, the environmental quality index was higher than the pollutant discharge index, and the pollutant discharge quantity overflowed the environmental capacity. The reduction of pollutant discharge quantity should be the most important environmental problem in China. At present, China is in a critical period of environmental governance, and excessive disturbance from economic system to the environment system should be prevented. The results should be helpful for understanding the regional environmental quality situation, on the implementation of pollutant discharge reduction, and the improvement of environmental quality.