基于基尼系数方法的长三角区域绿色发展状况均衡性探析

本文采用主成分分析方法,测算了长三角一体化区域经济发展与环境负荷系统综合指数;运用耦合协调模型,对两系统耦合协调度进行了考察;依据耦合协调度,构建了绿色发展能力判别标准,据此对绿色发展状态进行了识别;基于基尼系数方法,对绿色发展状况均衡性进行了探索。结果表明:(1)安徽、浙江、江苏、上海的经济发展指数分别由2005年的0.41、0.41、0.46、0.44跃升至2017年的0.81、0.72、0.85、0.84,环境负荷指数分别由2005年的0.91、0.91、0.90、0.84降至2017年的0.58、0.51、0.55、0.44;(2)研究时段内,安徽、浙江、江苏、上海的耦合协调度均值分别为0.7677、0.7667、0.7688、0.7691,均呈准绿色发展状态;(3)考察时序内,长三角一体化区域绿色发展能力基尼系数均值为0.0129,准绿色发展能力均衡。基于研究结果,提出了提升长三角一体化区域绿色发展能力的政策建议。

Exploration and analysis on the proportionality of green development capability in Yangtze River Delta Region based on Geordie Coefficient Method

Based on the principal component analysis method,the comprehensive index of the integrated regional economic development and environmental load system in the Yangtze River Delta integration region is calculated;the coupling coordination degree of the two systems is investigated by using the coupling coordination model;the discrimination standard of the green development capability is constructed according to the coupling coordination scheduling,and the green development status is identified accordingly;based on the Geordie Coefficient Method,the proportionality of green development capability is explored.The results show that:(1)the economic development indexes of Anhui,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Shanghai jumped from 0.41,0.41,0.46 and 0.44 in 2005 to 0.81,0.72,0.85 and 0.84 in 2017 respectively,and the environmental load indexes dropped from 0.91,0.91,0.90 and 0.84 in 2005 to 0.58,0.51,0.55 and 0.44 in 2017;(2)During the research period,the average values of the coupling coordination degree of Anhui,Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Shanghai were 0.7677,0.7667,0.7688 and 0.7691 respectively,showing quasi green development status;(3)according to the investigation sequence,the average Gini coefficient of green development capacity in the Yangtze River Delta integration region is 0.0129,and the quasi green development capacity is fair.Based on the research results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the green development capacity of the Yangtze River Delta integration region.