基于系统动力学的湖南省水资源供需系统模拟研究

运用系统分析的理论和方法，建立湖南省水资源供需系统模型，仿真模拟传统发展型、发展经济型、节水型、协调型等4种不同方案条件下，2010~2030年湖南省水资源供需变化趋势。结果表明：（1）随着经济发展和人口增长，水资源供需矛盾将日趋紧张;（2）在协调型模式下，水资源供应基本能够满足社会经济发展的需要，且用水效率最高，是湖南省水资源开发利用的最优方案;（3）为了实现节水型社会建设目标，还需完善用水管理、优化经济结构、加快水利建设、加大循环利用和环境整治，提高节水技术水平和水资源保障水平

SIMULATION OF WATER RESOURCES SUPPLY AND DEMAND SYSTEM IN HUNAN PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS

A water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built up to simulate the change trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2030 in four different scenarios,such as traditional development model,economic development model,water saving model and concerted development model.The simulation suggested that the problem of water resources supply and demand was becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and fast developing economies in Hunan Province.Water resources supply basically met the growing demands of economic and social development,and generated great comprehensive benefits under concerted development model.It would be the best to develop and utilize water resources in Hunan Province.We should strengthen the management on water conservation,optimize economic structure,improve water conservancy construction,accelerate the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement,promote the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources to realize the strategic goal of building a water efficient society