长三角城市工业碳排放及其经济增长关联性分析

根据《IPCC国际温室气体清单指南》中的参考方法对长三角16个城市2005～2009年的工业碳排放进行核算,具体分析比较16个城市的化石燃料的碳排放量、工业碳排放强度、工业碳排放变化率等影响因素,并通过关联性分析和脱钩分析对比城市工业碳减排现状与发展趋势,得出:(1)2009年长三角工业碳排放量达到20 979.79万t,其中煤炭消耗产生的碳排放量占主导,达到95.25%;(2)2005～2009年长三角16个城市的平均工业碳排放强度从1.25t/万元降低到0.88t/万元,上海的工业碳排放水平一直保持较低水平,江苏8个城市的工业碳排放强度较为接近,浙江省的7个城市工业碳排放强度差异明显;(3)长三角地区的碳排放强度与工业经济强度两者之间存在明显的负相关性;(4)工业增加值与工业碳排放量脱钩分析显示上海等13个城市落在弱脱钩区域。

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

With the rapid socio economic development of China,energy consumption and environmental problems become increasingly serious,especially the greenhouse effect which results from carbon emission becomes the worldwide focus.Global warming brings severe challenges to the sustainable development of human society, and has great effect on agriculture and food security,water safety,ecological safety and public health security.The paper proposed a method to analyze and compare the current situation of carbon emission and development tendency of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta.Firstly,it calculated the industrial carbon emission of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2009 based on the reference approach of IPCC Guideline for National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory. Secondly,it specifically analyzed and compared these influence factors such as the carbon emission of fossil fuel,carbon emission intensity and the change rate of industrial carbon emission.Lastly,it used correlation analysis and decoupling analysis to conduct contrastive analysis. The conclusions are drawn as follows.The carbon emissions were 2098 million tons in the Yangtze River Delta region and the carbon emission caused by coal consumption occupied the main part in 2009.The average industrial carbon emission intensity of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2009 dropped from 125 tons per ten thousand Yuan to 088 tons per ten thousand Yuan.The level of industrial carbon emission of Shanghai kept slow.The levels of industrial carbon emission of 8 cities of Jiangsu province were relatively same,while those of 7 cities of Zhejiang province were different obviously.There was obvious negative correlation between carbon emission intensity and industrial economic strength in the Yangtze River Delta region.Finally,the decoupling analysis of industrial added value and industrial carbon emission showed most cities including Shanghai belonged to weak decoupling region