化学品突发性事故预测的不确定性分析

介绍化学品突发性事故预测的不确定性概率统计和模糊数学分析方法。对参数和模式的不确定性分别进行了讨论，计算机系统包括化学品常用数据库、事故识别模块，事故后果分析模块和不确定性分析模块，对液氯泄漏排放事故、液化气（丙烷）两相闪蒸爆炸和管道煤气（CO）泄漏伤害模式实例进行了分析。对连续源和瞬时源的讨论说明泄漏时间的确定对事故分析极为重要。

UNCERTAIN ANALYSIS OF ESTIMATION ON SUDDEN ACCIDENTS FOR CHEMICALS

The present paper presents the uncertain analysis methods of estimation on sudden accidents for chemicals which include probability statistic method and fuzzy sets method in the risk assessments. The uncertainties of parameters and modeling are discussed respectively. The computer system includes the formworks of the database for the chemicals, the models of accidental identification, the accidental consequence analysis and the uncertain analysis. The examples of the accidental releases of the leaking liquid chlorine, the two-phase flash explosion of the liquid propane gas (LPG) and the injury model for the leakage of the pipe gas (CO) are discussed. It is proved that the determination of the leaking time is very important for accidental analysis by discussing the instantaneous source and successive source. The leakage of pipeline gas can be divided into two stages,(1)the beginning stage is before the partition value being closed. The leakage rate is usually constant, and(2)the leakage decay stage is after the partition value being closed. The leakage rates decays with the time depending on the leaking area, pressure and pipe volume and so on. The leaking time of the decay stage may be calculated step by step. Generally the instantaneous release (within 10 s) for a great amount of gas in the large range can employ adiabatic expansion model. The continuous release of gas (over 600 s) can adopt jet diffusion model. When the release time of gas is from 10 to 600 s, to determine the model needs a specific analysis.