Accident modelling and analysis in process industries |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Hydrogen Economy, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia;2. Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia;3. Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John''s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada;1. Safety and Risk Engineering Group (SREG), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada A1B 3X5;2. UTEC Survey Canada Ltd. Paradise, NL, Canada A1L 0V8;1. Centre for Studies on Technological Risk (CERTEC), Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain;2. Centre for Process Design, Safety and Loss Prevention (CPSL), Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran;1. Prevention Management International BVBA, Waterstraat 63, B-2970 Schilde, Belgium;2. Swissi Process Safety Gmbh, Schwarzwaldallee 215, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland;3. Mary Kay O’Connor Process Safety Center, Artie McFerrin Department of Chemical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA;4. DICCA, Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department, Polytechnic School, University of Genoa, Via Opera Pia 15, 16145 Genoa, Italy;1. Department of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;2. Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), TU Delft, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands;3. Dept. Engineering Management, FTEW, Universiteit Antwerpen, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium;4. CEDON, KULeuven, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;5. proNEXO Engineering Consultancy, Tehran, Iran;6. School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran;7. National Petrochemical Company, Iran;1. Institute of Hydrogen Economy, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia;2. Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia;3. Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John''s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Accident modelling is a methodology used to relate the causes and effects of events that lead to accidents. This modelling effectively seeks to answer two main questions: (i) Why does an accident occur, and (ii) How does it occur. This paper presents a review of accident models that have been developed for the chemical process industry with in-depth analyses of a class of models known as dynamic sequential accident models (DSAMs). DSAMs are sequential models with a systematic procedure to utilise precursor data to estimate the posterior risk profile quantitatively. DSAM also offers updates on the failure probabilities of accident barriers and the prediction of future end states. Following a close scrutiny of these methodologies, several limitations are noted and discussed, and based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve this category of models further. |
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| Keywords: | Accident modelling Dynamic sequential accident models Dynamic risk assessment Precursor data |
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